Working In Uncertainty

Theories, perspectives, and frameworks

This page is just for theories and you can usually find more specific technical suggestions on the pages for improving your skills and for improving an organization.

Management of risk/uncertainty

Managing risk/uncertainty, whether doing it through your own skills or by changing an organization, is a valuable, creative challenge. It should not be a boring, low value, bureaucratical chore of filling in forms and making lists, fudging through formal conversations, and just trying to make someone else happy.

Directing risk management in organizations (2016, guide)
An overview of risk/uncertainty management (2016, article)
Views on current risk management guidance and standards (2016, article)
The risk management we prefer (2015, article)
Risk, uncertainty, and limited knowledge and control (2015, article)
A taxonomy of approaches to risk management (2014, framework of possibilities)
A framework for accelerating management systems (2004, article)
A simple introduction to risk management and internal control in organisations (2004, article)
Dynamic Experience simulation (2004, interactive simulation)
Why is Evolutionary Project Management so effective? (2003, article)
Risk Management and Beyond Budgeting (2003, article)
Dynamic Management (2002, article)

Psychology

Thinking about psychological issues from a risk/uncertainty point of view often generates new insights.

Efficient psychology (a study of the artificial) (2021, groundbreaking theoretical and practical proposals)
Badminton and the Lucky Choices Theory of Ability (2013, article)
The Lucky Choices Theory of Ability (2010, something new in the nature-nurture debate)
Optimism, pessimism, and open-minded realism (2010, article)
The real reasons we avoid risk (2009, theoretical proposals)
What circumstances are relevant to decision making under uncertainty? (2009, study results)
Motivation and uncertainty (2007, detailed guide)
What Jurassic Park tells us about uncertainty suppression (2004, article)
Straight and crooked thinking about uncertainty (2002, article)

Automating open mindedness

One reason we tend to think too narrowly and ignore or underestimate our uncertainty is that doing better is hard work. Thinking through multiple alternatives is tiring and time-consuming, so we tend not to bother. Automating some of this thinking can save us time and energy, and often allow us to get better results too. Today's laptop computers can perform miracles of useful number crunching.

Mathematics as modelling toolkits: philosophical and practical aspects (2021, groundbreaking theoretical and practical proposals)
Specifying regression (2019, detailed proposals)
Automating open-mindedness (2014, article)
Learning and teaching probability and statistics (2014, article)
Taming probability notation (2014, article)
Probability axioms in Bayesian language (2014, detailed proposals)
Relative probabilities (2014, 2019, 2022, detailed proposals)
A way of thinking about probability (2005, article)
Practical probability (2003, article)

Miscellaneous earlier work

These papers are earlier works using different language and ideas, but often arguing for similar practices.

Two simple tools for expressing objectives clearly (2003, interactive web page)
How can auditors provide other services and still be objective? (2003, article)

Made in England