Working In Uncertainty

A perspective on management, risk, and control

The Working In Uncertainty perspective is simply the idea of making incremental changes to how we do things so that we can perform better despite our our limited knowledge and control. This is, in principle, a simple recipe for managing risk and uncertainty as part of core management activities.

Looking at management, risk, and control in this way gets us thinking of the right things using the right concepts. It's a 'frame' that helps us think rationally and productively about the issues involved.

The focus of the Working In Uncertainty perspective is those aspects of the way we work that help us perform despite limited control and knowledge. I make two important claims about this:

1. You will achieve more with less stress if you make simple changes to the way you work so that you understand and/or deal with uncertainty better. This applies to you as an individual and to any organization you are involved with.

2. A focus on working in uncertainty is clear, simple, and will take you far beyond the familiar prescriptions of risk management and internal control based on separate risk meetings, processes, and documents.

A Working In Uncertainty programme is any organized stream of changes to the way work is done designed to improve performance under uncertainty, focusing on adapting the way core management activities are done rather than adding new processes, meetings, and databases. What changes are included in your programme depends on your creativity and ambition. There is no standard approach, though there are many techniques that are often useful. The way to do it is simply to learn about the changes that work and try the ones that seem most promising for you or your organization. The techniques aren't new and they're not rocket science.

Although this website includes a lot of ideas for you to draw on and you can request more materials once you've registered an interest, the easiest and most time-efficient way to learn about specific techniques that you think you might use is to get some individual technical tutoring from me.

If you have any responsibility for work on 'risk management' and/or 'internal control' then you should find the Working In Uncertainty perspective a simplifying, unifying way to look at your job that helps you meet expectations for both more easily. It is based on what most people sensibly already believe and do (to some extent). It doesn't involve pushing new jargon at people, or pleading for cultural change.

I frequently discuss these ideas with other specialists (including thought leaders for organizations like IFAC, ACCA, and the IRM, risk managers for leading companies and working on major projects, and other thoughtful consultants) and my ideas on integration are widely shared. My surveys confirm that most people, regardless of their knowledge of risk management, hold similar views. The biggest challenges are to articulate this concept in practical language and to escape the illusion that Risk Listing has a stranglehold on risk management.

Personal and business improvement programmes

The reason that working better in uncertainty can be so beneficial is that we face uncertainty just about all the time and we're not always very good at it[15]. We tend to think we are better at predicting and controlling the future than in fact we are. As a result, we undervalue actions like flexibility, getting more information, and taking precautions. This bias is institutionalised into some common management methods. Consequently, there is often huge scope for improving the way we work so that it performs better in conditions of uncertainty — which is what we face most of the time.

Here are some articles explaining more about how you and others in your organization can get more done with less stress by using ideas from Working In Uncertainty:

- A summary of Working In Uncertainty
- Illustrative improvements to ways of working - for an individual
- Illustrative improvements to ways of working - for an organization

A simpler view of 'risk management' and 'internal control'

As an approach to risk management and internal control programmes, the Working In Uncertainty perspective is simple and clear. In particular, it has the advantage of presenting clearly two of the most important ideas in modern risk management:

Open-mindedness: An aim of modern risk management is to get people thinking more widely about what might happen, not just to think of bad things that might happen[1]. But as soon as we say 'risk' people focus on just the nasty surprises, forgetting about potential opportunities and other nice surprises[2]. When we say 'uncertainty' instead, people immediately begin to think and behave differently.

Integration: Modern risk management and internal control also aim to be fully integrated into ways of working[1]. Just about everyone recognises what this looks like when they see it and prefers that approach. But when we say phrases like 'risk management process' and 'internal control system' this gets people thinking of a new, separate activity with new meetings, documents, and bureaucracy. Say 'working in uncertainty' and immediately it is easier to focus on the real task, which is to make incremental changes to existing core management activities (e.g. forecasting, objective setting, process design) and basic business processes (e.g. buying, selling, making things, providing service) that improve their performance under limited knowledge and control.

I hope this taster has given you good reasons to evaluate this approach more rigorously. I've been working in the area of risk and control for many years – consulting, teaching, writing books, doing surveys, and getting involved with national and international standard setting – and I'm convinced that the Working In Uncertainty perspective will have a welcome impact for those who use it. Understanding the Working In Uncertainty perspective is really just a matter of finding things you already know and believe that are a good starting point for practical action. The short articles linked below explain more about this and I hope you can make time to consider the material carefully and with an open mind.

- A summary of Working In Uncertainty
- Illustrative improvements to ways of working - for an organization
- Guidelines for Working In Uncertainty
- Impact of Working In Uncertainty

Downloadable PowerPoints

If you want to explain Working In Uncertainty to someone you may find some of the slides in these PowerPoint files helpful. They are virtually format free for you to decorate and very short and simple.

- Presenting WIU to a team as an improvement initiative
- Presenting WIU to people as a personal improvement initiative
- Presenting WIU as a style of risk control programme

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