Working In Uncertainty

Manage risk/uncertainty by automating thinking

One reason we tend to think too narrowly and ignore or underestimate our uncertainty is that doing better is hard work. Thinking through multiple alternatives is tiring and time-consuming, so we tend not to bother. Automating some of this thinking can save us time and energy, and often allow us to get better results too. Today's laptop computers can perform miracles of useful number crunching.

Overview articles

Articles with code explaining simple Bayesian techniques in Excel

Articles with interesting new thinking on probability

The book

A pocket guide to risk mathematics by Matthew Leitch

Although this book is aimed specifically at auditors, its clear explanations and tips on faults to watch out for are useful for anyone with an interest in the topic. What emerges is that 'risk' in mathematics is a young and poorly formulated idea when compared with the long heritage of 'probability' and 'value'. The book explains several common mistakes in 'risk analysis'.

These really are key ideas that every auditor should know.


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Words © 2015 Matthew Leitch